Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 1.351859 1.419835 1.490159 1.568510 1.653561 1.743311 1.845463
2025-11-02 1.243580 1.339328 1.442443 1.562371 1.698813 1.850177 2.032150
2025-11-09 1.163683 1.273565 1.395021 1.540367 1.711118 1.907326 2.152795
2025-11-16 1.101267 1.220289 1.354539 1.518874 1.717009 1.951410 2.254748
2025-11-23 1.060528 1.187986 1.334346 1.517178 1.742893 2.017250 2.383908
2025-11-30 1.031655 1.167066 1.325115 1.526286 1.780218 2.096962 2.533786
2025-12-07 0.993025 1.132093 1.296516 1.508967 1.782015 2.129948 2.622650
2025-12-14 0.953374 1.093880 1.261796 1.481516 1.768267 2.140438 2.679824
2025-12-21 0.923507 1.066241 1.238620 1.467001 1.769639 2.169778 2.763637
2025-12-28 0.908857 1.056622 1.237175 1.479761 1.806853 2.248668 2.922925
2026-01-04 0.888680 1.039158 1.224839 1.477288 1.822772 2.298159 3.041721
2026-01-11 0.876752 1.031536 1.224540 1.490315 1.859962 2.379091 3.213801
2026-01-18 0.858162 1.015272 1.213041 1.488566 1.877521 2.434280 3.353301
2026-01-25 0.839354 0.998125 1.199751 1.483726 1.890292 2.482977 3.486625
2026-02-01 0.815666 0.973835 1.176084 1.463384 1.879329 2.494621 3.558459
2026-02-08 0.793569 0.950966 1.153516 1.443558 1.867908 2.504421 3.627236
2026-02-15 0.779637 0.938411 1.144304 1.441993 1.883126 2.556203 3.773552
2026-02-22 0.770170 0.931438 1.142303 1.450397 1.913390 2.633329 3.972713
2026-03-01 0.752439 0.912914 1.123914 1.434413 1.905511 2.647711 4.056165
2026-03-08 0.732230 0.890576 1.099671 1.409060 1.881973 2.634692 4.085666
2026-03-15 0.717081 0.874726 1.083971 1.395645 1.876375 2.651182 4.174023
2026-03-22 0.711233 0.871322 1.085417 1.407438 1.910800 2.737407 4.410653
2026-03-29 0.700959 0.861591 1.077668 1.405153 1.922456 2.784691 4.572180